Vissa bedömare tror at Obama kommer bli extra svårslagen i 2012 års presidentval efter senaste dygnets lyckade attack mot Bin Laden i Pakistan. Men det kanske är på sin plats att påminna om 1992.
After the successful performance by U.S. and coalition forces in the Persian Gulf War, President George H. W. Bush’s approval ratings were 89%. His re-election was considered very likely. As a result, several high profile candidates such as Mario Cuomo refused to seek the Democratic nomination. In addition, Senator Al Gore refused to seek the nomination due to the fact his son was struck by a car and was undergoing extensive surgery as well as physical therapy. (wikipedia)
FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver:
Some people are writing that finding/killing OBL won’t help Obama at all in ’12. That’s absurd, every bit as much as saying he’s a shoo-in.
Det är som vi skrivit tidigare här ”It’s the economy stupid” som med stor sannolikhet kommer avgöra valet. Bensinpriserna har stigit dramatiskt under senaste två åren. Arbetslösheten sjunker, men sakta. Och bostadsmarknaden är fortfarande svag. Sker inte en klar förbättring av ekonomin kan Obama få det tufft. Effekten av Bin Ladens död kommer inte vara obetydlig i valet, men andra frågor kommer dominera.